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What will be the endgame in Ukraine?

by Ambassador of Russia to South Africa Ilya Rogachev

2 April 2024
German-made 'Leopard' tanks destroyed in Ukraine. Photo: Russian Defence Ministry

A year ago, in one of our ‘Alternative Viewpoint’ entries we offered to our readership to reflect on how the conflict in Ukraine may end. Back then, Kiev was preparing for its infamous ‘counteroffensive,’ while the West, entangled in the ‘labyrinth of lies,’ was frantically pumping it with weapons. We all know the cost of those illusions: by Oct 2023, in the course of the counteroffensive, Ukraine lost about 125,000 troops and 16,000 units of heavy weaponry.

As of 2024, it has become clear – even to those who observed the entire picture through the lens of Western propaganda – that Russia fully owns the initiative on the battlefield. Not only wasn’t Russian defence industry ruined by sanctions, it is steadily growing, just as our entire economy (4,6% of the GDP growth in January 2024). Kiev is losing ground and people, and is about, much to the dismay of Ukrainians, to pass a law tightening mobilization rules. Western mainstream media rhetoric has notably changed: they aren’t talking about ‘Russia’s strategic defeat’ any longer, rather about how not to let Ukraine lose (which is as delusional).

In general, the situation looks drastically different from what the West expected to see, yet very close to what we were saying from the beginning: in no way shall we lose in this conflict. Western elites with their supremacist haughtiness – just listen to them! – underestimated Russia, as they bet all on our country’s military defeat and burnt all bridges behind them.

There’s a reason why the collective West is clinging on to the Kiev regime, and it’s not the support of Ukraine’s ‘democracy’ and ‘sovereignty,’ not protection of the international law which Russia has allegedly breached. As Polish Prime Minister Morawiecki put it, “Failure in Ukraine could be the beginning of the end of the golden age of the West.”

As simple as that. The conflict is not rooted in Russia’s ‘imperial ambitions,’ or in the Russian President’s alleged ‘warmongering,’ and it’s not, of course, ‘unprovoked and unjustified’ as the Western media and politicians unanimously try to make you believe. It is about the collective West’s dominance being threatened by emerging centres of economic and political power.

With its hegemony at stake, the West won’t stop supporting the monster in Kiev. As Ukraine kept losing on the battlefield, the West consequently crossed quite a number of its own ‘red lines’ in arms’ supplies – Javelins, middle- and long-range artillery weapons, air defence systems ‘Patriot’, NASAMS etc, then ‘Leopard,’ ‘Challenger,’ ‘Abrams’ tanks, F-16 aircrafts (promised). However, even some Western experts admit that no F‑16s, German ‘Taurus’ missiles, or any other ‘wonder weapon,’ will let Kiev emerge victorious.

Lately, amid rising voices in the West against the continued military support of Kiev, talks about NATO’s direct interference in the conflict were eventually started at the behest of President Macron, who opened Pandora box refusing to rule out sending ground troops to Ukraine. He later reiterated his position claiming France has 'no limits' to its support for Kiev, and urging Ukraine’s allies not to be ‘cowards.’ In an interview with 'Le Parisien' published on 16 March he didn’t exclude ground operations in Ukraine.

We are well aware that Western military already participate in hostilities in Ukraine – as mercenaries, advisors, instructors, contractors to operate Western-supplied hardware etc. It is no coincidence that often in the aftermath of Russian strikes on military targets in Ukraine, some NATO officers in their homelands are reported to have died ‘in a light plane crash,’ or in ‘a car accident,’ or ‘falling from a rock’ when ‘hiking in mountains’ etc. Plenty of bizarre obituaries, have you noticed it already, folks? With no witnesses found and no probes conducted.

With that said, why would France, Poland, Czech Republic, Baltic states, or Finland wish to officially send ground troops to Ukraine? Apparently, reckless politicians holding power in major Western countries are increasingly losing touch with reality. Seems like they do want to go to war against Russia, hoping to achieve a military victory at least that way, given their aid to Ukraine didn’t work.

According to spokesperson of the President of Russia Dmitrii Peskov, in case of the West sending troops to Ukraine, we would need to talk not about the probability, but about the inevitability of a direct conflict between NATO and Russia. Regardless of what NATO troops will be doing there, such a step vastly increases risks of a rapid escalation with the situation likely getting out of control and entailing unpredictable consequences for all parties involved.

Is a new war of the united Europe against Russia what ordinary people in the West really want? Their elites seem to have forgotten how to be sovereign and promote their national interests. Large US-based companies already made billions on EU’s energy crisis, food market situation, both resulting from anti-Russia sanctions frenzy, as well as on replacing arms supplied to Ukraine by European countries. Now people must go to war so that some moneybags across Atlantics could earn another fortune?

It’s not for nothing that Western officials and mainstream media frantically push the totally false ‘no-life-after-Ukraine’ narrative, trying to convince people that Ukraine crisis is existential for them. ‘Russia won’t stop,’ ‘Putin is ready to use nukes,’ ‘Russia will attack NATO in 5-8 years’ and other ‘tales from the crypt’ coming soon to frighten Europeans into sending their family members to die for the benefits of global corporations.

We want to remind that if it were not for the West, Ukraine crisis wouldn’t have emerged at all. If not for the West, it wouldn’t have gone so far as the special military operation. And finally, if not for the West, the special military operation would have ended back in April 2022.

In fact, Ukraine crisis can be resolved rather easily – simply by taking Russia’s legitimate security concerns into account. They aren’t something unthinkable; they are basically about an indivisible security system in Eurasia, equal for all. Something formulated in draft agreements with NATO and the USA put forward by Russia in December 2021 and rejected by the collective West. Thus, a peace initiative that would accommodate the provisions regarding Russia’s security issues can become a life-saving solution to Ukraine crisis.

However, we’ve seen no serious proposals from Ukraine or its Western masters so far. The so-called ‘Zelensky peace formula’ cannot serve as a basis for conflict resolution for one simple reason: it totally ignores Russia’s security interests. Apparently, it was initiated and is being promoted solely for propaganda purposes.

And time passes by. The further the conflict continues, the worse outcome not only for the immediate losing party (Ukraine), but also to all of Ukraine’s allies it would have. As we previously wrote, it is the West, not Russia, who needs an ‘off-ramp’ as this crisis is of its making. Shall we have to remind this yet again in even clearer and unambiguous circumstances, let’s say, by mid-summer this year?

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