A War to End All Wars?

(Photo: pixabay.com)

30 September 2022

Nuclear Armageddon has just become obsolete and redundant as the economic weapon of mass destruction explodes. All may not be lost, however, if one likens the fallout to a volcanic eruption which leaves behind fertile and nutrient ground in its destructive wake and invigorates new growth.

Dr Greg Mills, Director of the Brenthurst Foundation presented well researched scenarios in his lecture titled ‘How Russia’s war will end: lessons why nations succeed.’ Mills has travelled to both Poland and Ukraine on many occasions in the midst of the conflict, gathering information on the ground, first hand. Ambassador Andrzej Kanthak of Poland to South Africa hosted Dr Mills at the Embassy of Poland in Pretoria, to share his experience with diplomats based in the City of Tshwane.

As a NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) adviser, Mills has a unique insight into the workings of this military franchise. NATO was established in 1949, just 4 years after the Declaration of the United Nations in 1945, which opened a new and unique ideological front against the communists of the Union of the Soviet Socialist Republics- USSR which was founded in 1922. The Warsaw Pact was formed in 1955 and so the world entered what became known as the Cold War, and a bi-polar world order was born.

READ ALSO: Expensive Poverty, Expansive Poverty?

Mills questions the resolve and commitment of the NATO member countries, especially of the European Union (EU) whose fickle politics and politicking has not helped the situation. He referred to his experience in Iraq and Afghanistan and the petty, self-serving interest of member nations that hampered progress, and finally led to NATO’s defeat and withdrawal. Considering that NATO has three permanent representatives on the United Nations Security Council, theses failures need serious examination. The book ‘The Ledger - Accounting for Failure’, by David Kilcullen and Greg Mills is an in-depth account of this failure.

Mills suggests the indifference displayed by western nations is the reason why majority of the African nations have withheld their support. With the amount of aid assistance and grant funding African nations receive from the West, the question being asked is why would Africans turn their backs on the West? Is it a matter of failed diplomacy? The support for Russia is considered maligned as its investment, aid and trade with the continent is minimal. Is money then the determining factor for nations when considering decisions in international relations, or are the politics far removed from the values and principles of democracy? Some of the mistrust of African nations stem from the funds of aid and grant assistance programmes which usually end up in the hands of the political elite. Some of these donor programmes are structured so that contractors from donor countries are favoured and some feel it’s a kind of reparation to temper the guilt of colonialism. In ‘Expensive Poverty’ a book co-authored by Mills he points out the shortcomings of aid assistance and provides comprehensive solutions.

The youthful Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine received accolades from Mills for his leadership style. The actor/entertainer was called Reganesque in comparison to former US president Ronald Regan, the American actor who effectively used his skills to accede to the highest office in the USA. Zelensky’s savvy management of information, communications and the dynamic use of media platforms was praised by Mills. In contrast to Zelensky’s namesake, Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation, was described as stoic and a relic of a bygone era. At the recent meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization SCO held in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, both President Xi of China and Prime Minister Modi of India raised serious concern with President Putin for Russia’s ongoing military operation in Ukraine and called for a quick resolution.

The Ukrainian people were also commended for their resilience and bravery in standing up and fighting against the mighty Russian army. Mills explained the strengths and weaknesses of military intelligence and strategy on both sides. Ukraine is not going to march on Moscow he said, and although casualties are a tragic consequence of war on both sides, Ukraine has borne the brunt of the conflict on its territory with the destruction of infrastructure and psychological trauma on civilians. The song ‘Alone But Altogether’ recorded with local Ukrainian band String Mockingbird and Ugandan politician Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, better known as Bobi Wine, expressed solidarity with the Ukrainian people and pays tribute to their courageous stand.

K Bhana